In the Extended Bull Run
Market pundits use the term "bull" (opposite is "bear") when pertaining to a stock market, or even a economy experiencing a long, extended, and significant gain. And the businessmen are on it now: "We are in a bull run".Going back to those times, anyway, the Philippines, once just second only to Japan in progress in the 50's and the 60's, deteriorated, and somehow missed the Asian Miracle in the late 80's, and early 90's. By then, the world was astonished by the "recovery", of the Asia, particularly those in the Southeast Asia, led by Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, together with the Philippines, and they were known as the new "East Asian Tiger Economies". The Philippines is actually a "tiger"cub.
The Philippines, under Fidel Ramos, after years of battling energy crises and 8-hour blackouts , enjoyed a budget surplus(which we hope to obtain in 2008 or earlier), a very healthy foreign trade, and a booming economy. Investors flocked, "hot money" flowed, the phisix is at an all-time high,interest rates were down, and although the peso was slowly rising, curency fluctuation was low. But this is bound to be cut short by the the Asian Crisis, and aggravated by Estrada's mismanagement of the economy.
And now, under Gloria M. Arroyo, the tide made an upswing. The Composite index, dubbed as the second best Asian bourse, has just breached the 2800 psychological barrier , the level seen last July,1997. The Peso was at it's four month highs, at 49.65, appreciating at least 7%, making it one of Asia's best performing currency. The investors are returning, credit institutions, Moody's Standard and Poors, Fitch and the like have been upgrading their outlook to us, and our investment grade to stable from negative,the fiscal deficit is down to just 60 billion pesos. The middle-class is greatly stretching its numbers.
This is the PSEi performance. Soon it will be reaching the ever- elusive 3000 psychological barrier. (Trivia": Did you know that the local bourse created a trillion pesos in its trading for the last few years? )
And this is the Philippine peso's performance. It has appreciated by some 7%-8% this year.
We've been growing for an average of 5.5% for 20 consecutive quarters, the longest in history. Inflation is in a low of 5.4%. And for the first time in years, we've been paying up our debts. The 4 trillion php we owe is being reduced. The ones we were paying then were merely interests.
And it won't be long 'till the poorest feels the improving economy. I hope that's not too long.
And as for me? I'm gonna be a stockbroker. Buy! Hold!
posted by Randyh @ Monday, November 13, 2006
Comments: 0
